4
Doc Sullivan
5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 103
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Vosburgh Stakes - Grade 3 · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-11-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |