6
Ignite The Light
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 100
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Vosburgh Stakes - Grade 3 · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 13th | −5 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-02-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-12-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2025-11-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 13th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 12/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 22/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |