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Moonlight

5yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 108

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Vosburgh Stakes - Grade 3 · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 108 · 1m110y 122 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 108 par28/09C6OR 108C1 @ Keeneland 25/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 113 · 1m1f 122 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 113 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 114 · 1m 121 · beat its mark30/11/2025 · OR 114 par30/11C5OR 114C1 @ Fair Grounds 17/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 112 · 1m110y Fas 122 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 112 parC1 @ Fair Grounds 14/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 111 · 1m110y Fas 122 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 111 par14/02C1OR 111C5 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 108 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 108 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 109 · 1m 118 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 109 par28/06C1OR 109C0 @ Del Mar 26/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 104 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 104 parC0 @ Del Mar 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 112 · 7f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 112 par30/08C?OR 112projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Del Mar?2nd2nd+0
2026-07-26Del Mar?3rd3rd+0
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?7th7th0
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?2nd7th−4
2026-02-14Fair Grounds?6th6th0
2026-01-17Fair Grounds?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0917/0128/0630/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
25/10/20255th7/163%60%-0.03
30/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
17/01/20266th3/184%29%-0.56
14/02/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
02/05/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19
28/06/20267th16/116%33%+0.18
26/07/20263rd33/10%71%+0.71
30/08/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15