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9

Rebel's Heir

2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 65

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Monmouth Park 12/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f Fm 117 · HIGHER CLASS12/07C6C9 @ Delaware Park 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 69 · 5f Slo 118 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 69 par22/07C9OR 69C6 @ Delaware Park 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 58 · 7f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 58 par10/09C6OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Delaware Park?6th3rd+3
2026-07-22Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-07-12Monmouth Park?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0722/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +52.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20266th10/382%0%-0.82
22/07/20264th3/184%40%-0.44
10/09/20266th16/116%38%+0.22