Chasten
4yo Filly · 8-8
Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/01/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 02/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 26/06/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |