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Kinzie Queen

4yo Filly · 8-5

Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 16/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 88 · 1m110y Fas 119 · below its mark16/03/2025 · OR 88 par16/03C6OR 88C0 @ Oaklawn Park 29/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m110y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2025 · OR 93 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 26/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fas 118 · beat its mark26/04/2025 · OR 93 par26/04C6OR 93C0 @ Pimlico 16/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 95 · 1m1f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2025 · OR 95 parC1 @ Delaware Park 14/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 96 par14/06C1OR 96C0 @ Saratoga 16/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 96 · 1m2f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 96 parC5 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 94 par13/06C5OR 94C6 @ Colonial Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 91 · 1m Gd 122 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 91 parC6 @ Delaware Park 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 93 · 1m70y 124 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 93 par21/08C6OR 93projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Delaware Park?4th7th−3
2026-07-22Colonial Downs?1st4th−3
2026-06-13Delaware Park?5th7th−2
2025-08-16Saratoga?6th3rd+3
2025-06-14Delaware Park?3rd0th+2
2025-05-16Pimlico?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0316/0513/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/03/20252nd10/382%86%+0.03
29/03/20255th20/10%50%+0.50
26/04/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
16/05/20253rd10/147%75%+0.28
14/06/20253rd7/282%75%-0.07
16/08/20256th40/10%0%0.00
13/06/20265th25/10%33%+0.33
22/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
21/08/20264th7/491%25%-0.66