3
Low Country Magic
5yo Mare · 8-6
Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |