6
Margie's Intention
4yo Filly · 8-9
Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength70%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-06-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |