11
Miss Authentic
4yo Filly · 8-7
Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |