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8

Nerazurri

4yo Filly · 8-8

Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Oaklawn Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 101 · 6f 117 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 101 par20/12C7OR 101C5 @ Oaklawn Park 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 97 · 1m110y 119 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 97 parC1 @ Oaklawn Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 98 par7/02C1OR 98C5 @ Oaklawn Park 27/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fas 124 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 100 parC1 @ Oaklawn Park 11/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS11/04C1C0 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 104 parC5 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 106 · 1m1f 120 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 106 par20/06C5OR 106C0 @ Monmouth Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 103 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 103 parC0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 103 · 1m1f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 103 par29/08C?OR 103projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?3rd0th+3
2026-07-18Monmouth Park?3rd0th+3
2026-06-20Thistledown?1st3rd−2
2026-05-01Churchill Downs?8th5th+3
2026-04-11Oaklawn Park?6th4th+2
2026-02-27Oaklawn Park?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1227/0220/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
01/01/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
07/02/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
27/02/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
11/04/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
01/05/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
20/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
18/07/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
29/08/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44