IvyArcIvyArc
4

Regaled

5yo Mare · 8-9

Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength97%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Ellis Park 10/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m 122 · beat its mark10/08/2025 · OR 93 par10/08C5OR 93C0 @ Churchill Downs 13/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 94 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 94 parC3 @ Delaware Park 28/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 99 · 1m1f 117 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 99 par28/09C3OR 99C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 95 · 1m1f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 95 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 27/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 102 · 1m1f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 102 par27/11C1OR 102C0 @ Oaklawn Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 104 · 1m110y Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 104 parC1 @ Oaklawn Park 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS11/04C1C0 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 105 · 1m1f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 107 · 1m1f Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 107 par27/06C?OR 107projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Churchill Downs?2nd-1th+3
2026-06-05Saratoga?4th1st+3
2026-04-11Oaklawn Park?4th2nd+2
2026-03-07Oaklawn Park?2nd-1th+3
2025-11-27Churchill Downs?4th1st+2
2025-11-01Del Mar?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/081/1111/0427/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/08/20252nd16/116%83%+0.68
13/09/20253rd6/168%60%-0.08
28/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
01/11/20253rd25/10%82%+0.82
27/11/20254th10/382%57%-0.25
07/03/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
11/04/20264th9/276%63%-0.14
05/06/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
27/06/20262nd11/271%67%-0.04