9
Social Fortress
4yo Filly · 8-4
Delaware Park · Race 10 - Delaware Handicap - Grade 3 · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-10-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-09-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/08/2024 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 05/10/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 31/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |