2
Costa Amalfitana
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 24/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |