3
Don't Listen
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 82
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/08/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/10/2024 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |