7
Sergeant Capps
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 87
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/02/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |