3
Forever Chocolate
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 91
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |