8
Our Notion
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 90
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |