9
Patrol Squad Six
3yo Colt · 8-5 · OR 105
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |