12
Paynter's Prodigy
5yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 101
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |