10
Sam Stormy
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 93
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 24/12/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |