4
Martiniwithatwist
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 8 - White Clay Creek Stakes · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +22.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |