10
Big Dig
6yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 91
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 7-17 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |