1
Native Rose
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 92
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#15
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 08/03/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 06/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |