5
Persuasive
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 73
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-02-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +41.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 12/04/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |