15
Racey Ruby
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-26 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2024-09-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |