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11

Thea

5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 90

Delaware Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Del Mar 10/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 83 · 1m Fm 125 · below its mark10/11/2025 · OR 83 par10/11C8OR 83C8 @ Oaklawn Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 89 · 1m 122 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 89 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 04/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 86 par4/01C5OR 86C5 @ Oaklawn Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 94 · 1m110y 118 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 94 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 91 · 1m110y 122 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 91 par26/02C8OR 91C6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 88 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 88 par10/05C7OR 88C7 @ Churchill Downs 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 86 parC7 @ Ellis Park 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 1m 123 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 89 par6/07C7OR 89projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Ellis Park?1st3rd−2
2026-06-07Churchill Downs?2nd4th−2
2026-05-10Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-04-02Oaklawn Park?3rd4th−1
2026-02-26Oaklawn Park?1st4th−3
2026-02-07Oaklawn Park?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/117/0210/056/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/11/20256th16/116%38%+0.22
20/12/20252nd25/10%86%+0.86
04/01/20265th100/10%60%+0.60
07/02/20264th40/10%73%+0.73
26/02/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
02/04/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
10/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
07/06/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
06/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09