4
Yes Picnic
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-12-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 3-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |