13:14 · Perth

Christmas Party Nights At Perth Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m 4f 20yGoing TBCClass 34YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 137
11/8
Tamarind Bay silks

Llangoedmor Partnership

6yo Gelding · 11-10

Elusive Pimpernel - Tempest River (Old Vic)

James Bowen60%1/5M Bowen60%
2311U1
8.0Going 10.0

A different proposition since switched to fences, scoring with ease at Stratford and Uttoxeter in June. Looked the likely winner when unseating late on here before impressively resuming winning ways at Bangor (3m) 20 days ago. Hiked up 9 lb but more to come. Engaged 3.57 Perth Wednesday.

Class Advantage

19/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/11 · mark par19/1128/02 · C3 · finish vs mark above28/02 · mark par31/03 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/03 · mark par16/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par28/06 · C3 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par4/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength11%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 20y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 33%19/11Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 71%31/03Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%28/06Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%4/09
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.2%Ahead 4/4
2
2
OR 126
9/2
The Last Cloud silks

Mr B Hague, Mrs W Duffus & Partner

6yo Gelding · 10-13

Cloudings - Lady Lucarno (Lucarno)

B S Hughes60%3/7P Neville80%
1433P6
6.0Class ↓2
1st Tongue Strap +2

Completed a course hat-trick over hurdles last summer prior to solid efforts in Grade 1 Formby and Grade 2 River Don. Took his first wrong step when pulled up at Kelso in February but shaped well under a considerate ride back here (2m) on final start and is the type to make a chaser. Tongue tied.

Class Advantage

8/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par8/068/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/09 · mark par24/10 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/10 · mark par26/12 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/12 · mark par24/01 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/01 · mark par15/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par15/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 20y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%8/06Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 73%24/10Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 3 · SP 18/5 | Expected: 81%Pos 3 · SP 18/5 | Actual: 82%24/01Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 29%15/08
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength52%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.4%Ahead 2/4
3
3
OR 125
13/2
Spectacularsunrise silks

Geoffrey Bruce Ltd

6yo Gelding · 10-12

Passing Glance - Definitley Lovely (Definite Article)

Sam Twiston-Davies70%1/5N & W Twiston-Davies80%
112696
4.0

Imposing sort who took well to hurdling, winning a Bangor novice and Kelso handicap before the turn of the year. Failed to add to his tally but shaped much better than the distance beaten suggests upped in trip at Ayr (21f) on final outing and is an interesting chasing newcomer.

Class Advantage

27/10 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a27/107/12 · C3 · finish vs mark above7/12 · mark par27/12 · C3 · finish vs mark below27/12 · mark par16/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below16/01 · mark par28/02 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/02 · mark par17/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/04 · mark par17/04projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 20y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%27/10Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 90%27/12Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 62%Pos 9 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 9 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%28/02Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%17/04
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.6%Ahead 2/4
4
4
OR 118
7/2
Walking On A Dream silks

Fishwick & Russell

7yo Gelding · 10-5

Walk In The Park - Connaught Hall (Un Desperado)

Jack Power60%1/3−5lbL Russell & M Scudamore
P32812
7.0Class ↓2

Quickly back on track over fences with success over extended 2½m at Ayr in March, albeit in a race which took little winning with his 2 rivals making jumping errors. Again ran well when second over C&D the following month and has claims if picking up where he left off.

Class Advantage

2/01 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/011/11 · C3 · finish vs mark below1/11 · mark par10/12 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/12 · mark par15/01 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/01 · mark par6/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/03 · mark par22/04 · C3 · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par22/04projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 20y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/4 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Actual: 100%2/01Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 86%10/12Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 30%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%6/03Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 83%22/04
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -3.4%Ahead 2/4
5
5
OR 116
10/1
Sleedagh silks

Burnside Racing Ltd

6yo Gelding · 10-5

Milan - Tullyglush (Scorpion)

D R Fox70%0/5L Russell & M Scudamore
222339
5.0Going 9.0

£80,000 point recruit who was runner-up on his sole outing in bumpers and also placed on his first 4 starts over hurdles in maiden/novice company. Ended last season on a bit of a downward note but should make a better chaser. 2 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage

21/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/103/12 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/01 · C4 · finish vs mark below2/01 · mark par31/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/01 · mark par27/02 · C3 · finish vs mark below27/02 · mark par24/04 · C3 · finish vs mark below24/04 · mark par24/04projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 20y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%21/10Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 90%2/01Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 33%27/02Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 27%24/04
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength2%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.7%Ahead 1/4
6
6
OR 115
12/1
Scalpnagoon silks

Mr M J Hanrahan

6yo Gelding · 10-5

Policy Maker - Lady Seymour (Watar)

S Bowen80%G Elliott60%
234235
3.0Class ↓2
Tongue strap

Fairly useful over hurdles and has translated that level to chasing but looks one to avoid for win purposes as his weak-finishing tendencies seem ingrained now whatever the trip, again emptying in alarming fashion at Kilbeggan (3¼m) on most recent outing. 3 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage

25/05 · C12 · finish vs mark below25/05 · mark par25/058/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below8/06 · mark par30/06 · C12 · finish vs mark below30/06 · mark par10/07 · C12 · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par8/08 · C11 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par21/08 · C11 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par21/08
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move8
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 20y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 91%25/05Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 40%30/06Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 60%8/08Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 43%21/08
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength12%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.4%Ahead 1/4