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14:15 · Goodwood

Virgin Bet Foundation Stakes (Listed)

1m 1f 197yGoing TBCClass 13YO plusTURF6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
2
OR 109
11/4
Naqeeb silks

Mr N O'keeffe

Naqeeb

6yo Gelding · 9-4

Nathaniel - Aghareed (Kingmambo)

Ryan Sexton1/9Miss J A Camacho
815255
5.0

Won this 12 months ago and short headed by Boiling Point (who has to give him 3 lb now) in another C&D listed race in May (both good ground). Possibly unsuited by a much softer surface when well-held fifth in last month's Celebration Mile here. The type to bounce back quickly.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par22/0824/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above24/09 · mark par1/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above1/05 · mark par22/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par11/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par29/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 22%22/08Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 43%1/05Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 43%11/07Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 33%29/08
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +45.1%Ahead 4/4
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 111
5/2
Boiling Point silks

Exors Of The Late Sheikh Mohammed Obai

Boiling Point

5yo Horse · 9-7

Too Darn Hot - Lady Momoka (Shamardal)

S H James70%0/2K R Burke60%
313426
6.0Going 10.0

Defied top weight in the Cambridgeshire last September and edged out Naqeeb in a C&D listed race in May. Creditable efforts on next 3 starts and likely simply got bogged down on soft ground in the Celebration Mile here last time. Should go well despite his 3 lb penalty.

Class Advantage

15/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/04 · mark par15/0422/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par5/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par3/07 · C1 · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par31/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par29/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 60%15/04Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 71%5/06Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 83%31/07Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 17%29/08
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -16.4%Ahead 0/4
4
4
OR 105
9/2
Respond silks

Highclere Thoroughbred Racing - Teal

Respond

4yo Gelding · 9-4

Ghaiyyath - Cross My Mind (Cape Cross)

Oisin Murphy70%3/6A M Balding80%
131294
5.0

Better than ever since switched to front-running tactics with wins over 1¼m at Chelmsford and Chester in the spring. Also very good second of 16 in handicap at Epsom (1¼m) in June and showed he can be competitive at listed level when 3¼ lengths fourth at Windsor (11.5f, good to soft) 25 days ago.

Class Advantage

12/03 · C3 · finish vs mark above12/03 · mark par12/0328/03 · C2 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par8/05 · C2 · finish vs mark above8/05 · mark par5/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par11/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par29/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/2 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Actual: 100%12/03Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 83%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%8/05Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 93%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 62%11/07Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 57%29/08
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.5%Ahead 3/4
2
3
OR 109
7/2
Lion's Pride silks

Mr A E Oppenheimer

Lion's Pride

6yo Gelding · 9-4

Roaring Lion - Crimson Ribbon (Lemon Drop Kid)

W Buick70%J & T Gosden60%
615646
4.0

Emphatic winner of a Newmarket listed race (1½m) last autumn but hasn't built on it since, including tailed-off last of 6 in Jockey Club Stakes at same course in May. Off 6 months.

Class Advantage

7/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/0921/04 · C1 · finish vs mark below21/04 · mark par26/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above26/09 · mark par14/11 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/11 · mark par18/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/04 · mark par1/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/05 · mark par1/05projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 83%7/09Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 29%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 100%26/09Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 43%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 40%18/04Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 0%1/05
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.2%Ahead 1/4
5
5
OR 106
11/2
Treble Tee silks

Michael Geoghegan Et Al

Treble Tee

4yo Gelding · 9-4

Persian King - Sefroua (Kingmambo)

James Doyle80%1/2S & E Crisford
167513
5.0
Tongue strap

Quickly made up into a smart handicapper last season and back on the up with a win over 1m Newcastle in June. Below that level when 6 lengths third in a French listed race (9f, soft) since. First attempt at 1¼m.

Class Advantage

13/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above13/09 · mark par13/0927/09 · C2 · finish vs mark above27/09 · mark par29/10 · C1 · finish vs mark below29/10 · mark par28/03 · C1 · finish vs mark below28/03 · mark par25/06 · C2 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par1/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/5 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 11/5 | Actual: 100%13/09Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 77%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 14%29/10Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%25/06Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 67%1/08
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.9%Ahead 1/4