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18:30 · Dundalk

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes (Listed)

7fStandardClass 12YO onlyPOLYTRACK11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Value2
OR 87
8/1
Duidin silks

Leonard Green

Duidin

2yo Colt · 9-5

Cotai Glory - Firelight City (War Command)

Nathan CrosseDonnacha O'Brien60%
3811
7.0Going 8.0

Won last 2 minor events on all-weather, latterly at Kempton over 7f in June when travelling well and quickening clear. Needs progress upped in grade but looks an interesting recruit for a stable that does well with similar types.

Class Advantage

30/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a30/0415/05 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a15/0516/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a16/0629/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par29/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength4%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 75%Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 78%30/04Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 42%15/05Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%16/06Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Actual: 100%29/06
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.8%Ahead 2/4
3
6
OR 90
14/1
Equus Victor silks

Karl Kirwan & R P Behan & Mrs John Murphy & James Morgan

Equus Victor

2yo Gelding · 9-5

Blackbeard - Dancing On Air (Fastnet Rock)

Ben Coen70%1/1Daniel Murphy60%
541
4.0

Much improved when dead-heating in a 15-runner maiden over 7f at Gowran Park 31 days ago and that form is working out pretty well. Not without hope back on all-weather and upped in grade.

Class Advantage

15/03 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a15/0315/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a15/081/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a1/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲7
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 33%Dist: 7f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 33%15/03Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 75%15/08Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%1/09
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +27.3%Ahead 2/3
7
5
OR 98
5/1
South Dakota silks

M Tabor,D Smith,Mrs J Magnier,Westerberg

South Dakota

2yo Colt · 9-5

St Mark's Basilica - Palace (Fastnet Rock)

Wayne Lordan60%1/4A P O'Brien
44331
5.0

Fourth in the Chesham Stakes at Ascot in June and then produced best effort since when winning a conditions race at Roscommon in August, showing an excellent attitude to fend off the favourite. One to take seriously switched to all-weather and back up in grade.

Class Advantage

23/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/0518/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a15/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a3/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/08 · mark par31/08 · C10 · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par31/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength7%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 7f · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 57%23/05Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 77%18/06Pos 3 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 50%15/07Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 80%3/08Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%31/08
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.4%Ahead 1/4
11
3
OR 94
12/1
Nicely silks

Amo Racing Limited

Nicely

2yo Filly · 9-0

Persian Force - Kakashan (Kodiac)

Rowan Scott60%0/2K P De Foy60%
21614
5.0

Two-time winner over 6f, including in a conditions race at Chester in August. Creditable fourth of 8 at Kempton on all-weather debut in a Group 3 last month, keeping on, and she's not without hope back up to 7f.

Class Advantage

2/07 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a2/0717/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/08 · mark par22/08 · C2 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par5/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 20%Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 80%2/07Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%17/07Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 17%2/08Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%22/08Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 57%5/09
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength59%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.1%Ahead 3/4
4
7
OR 93
5/1
Joga Bonito silks

Tony Bloom & Ian McAleavy

Joga Bonito

2yo Gelding · 9-5

Territories - Aurora Gray (Rip Van Winkle)

Billy Lee60%1/4P Twomey60%
42312
5.0
Cheek pieces

Thriving since being gelded and fitted with cheekpieces, off the mark at Galway in July and progressed again when second of 9 in a conditions race at Roscommon 32 days ago. Steps into listed company and makes all-weather debut with place claims if continuing his rise.

Class Advantage

11/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a11/0528/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/08 · C9 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par31/08projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲7
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 67%11/05Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 86%28/05Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 83%19/06Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%31/07Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 88%31/08
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.8%Ahead 1/4
9
Top Pick1
OR 99
9/2
Dee's Funny Girl silks

Medallion,Weston,Trommer,Fowler

Dee's Funny Girl

2yo Filly · 9-0

Cotai Glory - Comical (No Nay Never)

O J Orr60%Donnacha O'Brien60%
1626
4.0

Strong claims on second in a Group 3 over 6f at Ascot in July on debut for this yard, but flopped as favourite when last of 6 in a Group 2 upped to this trip at Deauville in August, flashing her tail. Tongue strap worn that day now removed and she's the form pick if bouncing back.

Class Advantage

16/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a16/0519/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/0625/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/0723/08 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 7f · 75%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 1 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 100%16/05Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 79%19/06Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 90%25/07Pos 6 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 6 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 0%23/08
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.3%Ahead 3/4
8
4
OR 89
14/1
Zoar silks

Sheikh Hamed Dalmook Al Maktoum

Zoar

2yo Colt · 9-5

No Nay Never - Big Brothers Pride (Invincible Spirit)

Gavin RyanDonnacha O'Brien60%
213
5.0

Won maiden at Naas in August but no progress when third of 5 in a conditions race at Cork over 6f 23 days ago. Now upped in grade for all-weather debut so needs to progress for this longer trip.

Class Advantage

22/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a22/0723/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/089/09 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a9/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲7
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 7f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 94%22/07Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%23/08Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 50%9/09
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.8%Ahead 2/3
1
10
12/1
Aachen silks

Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor

Aachen

2yo Colt · 9-5

Gun Runner - Monday (Fastnet Rock)

Declan McDonoghA P O'Brien
3
7.0

Shaped very well when third of 13 in a maiden at this track over 1m on debut in mid-August, finishing well. Takes a significant step up to listed class and drops in trip but is open to improvement for top connections.

Class Advantage

15/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a15/08
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲7
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 100%Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 83%15/08
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-6 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength60%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +46.5%Ahead 1/1
5
8
OR 97
8/1
One Number silks

Munir/Souede/MacLennan et al

One Number

2yo Colt · 9-5

Jack Christopher - Ghostinhim (Ghostzapper)

J M Sheridan60%J P O'Brien60%
203517
4.0
Cheek pieces

Won 1m maiden on all-weather at Lingfield in August but only seventh of 12 at listed level on turf at Kentucky Downs 23 days ago in first-time blinkers. Reverts to cheekpieces and drops in trip but needs more in this company.

Class Advantage

3/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/0617/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a4/07 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a27/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below27/07 · mark par20/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength7%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 92%3/06Pos 18 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 18 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%4/07Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 43%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%20/08Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 45%9/09
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -20.3%Ahead 1/4
6
Market Fav9
7/2
Salt Lake silks

Amo Racing Ltd & Valmont

Salt Lake

2yo Colt · 9-5

Persian Force - Lady Aria (Kodiac)

Donagh O'Connor1/1Robson Aguiar60%
21
5.0

Second on debut at the Curragh over this trip, beaten a short-head by a subsequent winner, then got off the mark in a maiden at Naas 15 days ago over 6f. Steps up to listed company and makes all-weather debut back at 7f with progress likely so could be a big threat.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a22/0817/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a17/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲7
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 7f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 93%22/08Pos 1 · SP 4/11 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/11 | Actual: 100%17/09
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +34.5%Ahead 1/2
10
11
20/1
Fighting Tears silks

A Oliver

Fighting Tears

2yo Filly · 9-0

Lucky Vega - American Frolic (Blame)

Gary Carroll60%A Oliver80%
16
4.0

Won over 6f on debut at the Curragh in August before sixth of 10 in a listed race at Fairyhouse 11 days ago. Steps up to 7f for all-weather bow but likely to struggle again at this level.

Class Advantage

16/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/0821/09 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a21/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%16/08Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 44%21/09
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength28%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.8%Ahead 2/2