Diplomata
2yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 78
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Fillies' Nursery · 7f 50y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +14.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |