13:57 · Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Nursery (Str)

7fGoing TBCClass 42YO onlyTURFHandicap13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
2
OR 83
15/2
The Bookkeeper silks

Gallaghers

2yo Colt · 9-7

Sioux Nation - Black Magic Woman (Camacho)

R L Moore60%0/1R Hughes60%
41436
6.0

Won a small-field novice at Haydock (7f, good to soft) in May and has shown better form in defeat since, notably his third of 18 in 7f Glorious Goodwood nursery. Creditable sixth in a valuable sales race at York last time considering the drop back to 6f didn't suit. Considered back at 7f.

Class Advantage

14/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/0522/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par20/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength81%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 40%14/05Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%22/05Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%5/06Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 88%30/07Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 74%20/08
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +32.3%Ahead 4/4
10
4
OR 75
8/1
Magi Melchior silks

John Collins & Emma Cracknell

2yo Colt · 8-13

Kodiac - Background (Lope De Vega)

S M Levey70%0/4R Hannon60%
4403
5.0

Has reached the frame on 3 of his 4 starts, running his best race when third of 14 in nursery over C&D (firm), doing his best work late on. Enters calculations for a stable with a good record in this race.

Class Advantage

2/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/0713/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a13/071/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/0826/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/08 · mark par26/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 67%2/07Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 73%13/07Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 17%1/08Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 85%26/08
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +38.5%Ahead 3/4
4
Top Pick1
OR 82
10/1
Jumeirah Storm silks

Mr Abdulla Al Mansoori

2yo Colt · 9-6

Lucky Vega - Tayybah (Kingman)

H Crouch60%W J Knight70%
4126
6.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Split a pair of next-time-out winners when promising fourth at Salisbury before digging deep to land 6f Doncaster novice (good to firm) in July. Cheekpieces on first time, creditable sixth of 18 in nursery at York (6f, good) 30 days ago, rallying as if this step up to 7f will suit.

Class Advantage

14/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/063/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/0723/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par23/0719/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par19/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength58%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 70%14/06Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%3/07Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 75%23/07Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 71%19/08
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.5%Ahead 3/4
6
Market Fav3
OR 77
10/3
Next Of Kin silks

Dunchurch Lodge Stud Company

2yo Filly · 9-1

Kingman - Thank You Next (No Nay Never)

Cieren Fallon80%1/1W J Haggas
31
9.0Going 8.0

Kingman filly who built on her 6f course debut third when landing short odds in 6f Ayr maiden last month. Moves up to 7f for her nursery debut. Likely more to come for top stable.

Class Advantage

17/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a17/0710/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a10/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength9%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%17/07Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%10/08
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.9%Ahead 2/2
9
5
OR 77
9/2
Silver Sovereign silks

Mr J C Smith

2yo Filly · 9-1

Ten Sovereigns - Silver Dawn (Dark Angel)

Rossa Ryan70%C G Cox
21
8.0Going 8.0

Promising second on 6f Salisbury debut and built on that to go one place better over 7f at Haydock (good to firm) 17 days later. There's more improvement in her for a stable which is no stranger to success in this nursery.

Class Advantage

21/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/077/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength25%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 75%21/07Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%7/08
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.2%Ahead 2/2
12
6
OR 70
7/1
Sakowin silks

The Lakota Partnership

2yo Colt · 8-8

Sioux Nation - Tranquil Spirit (Invincible Spirit)

Finley Marsh70%1/4R Hughes60%
8591
5.0

Left his qualifying runs behind when returning from wind surgery to make a successful start to his nursery career over 7f at Kempton last month. This is a stronger race but a 5 lb rise looks fair.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a15/0530/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a30/0514/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/0619/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par19/08projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 22%15/05Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 43%30/05Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 20%14/06Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%19/08
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength74%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +7.8%Ahead 3/4
7
8
OR 77
20/1
Mojito Madness silks

Mr Chris Housego

2yo Colt · 9-1

Kodiac - Dance Club (Fasliyev)

Ray Dawson1/2Gihan Arnolda
5319
5.0

Made it third time lucky in 7f maidens at Redcar (good to firm) in July. Respectable ninth of 18 in sales race at Newmarket (6f, good) since, making effort earlier than ideal. Returns to 7f for his handicap debut.

Class Advantage

8/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a8/061/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a1/0719/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a19/0722/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%8/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 71%1/07Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%19/07Pos 9 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 53%22/08
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength53%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.8%Ahead 4/4
1
7
OR 85
10/1
Weleyff silks

Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum

2yo Colt · 9-9

Too Darn Hot - Alnaas (Dansili)

W Buick60%E Bethell
3110
6.0Going 9.0

Successful over 7f in novice at Ayr (firm) and nursery at Doncaster (good to firm) in recent months. Possibly unsuited by soft ground when well held in a big-field nursery at the York Ebor meeting. Retains potential.

Class Advantage

16/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/0613/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/071/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/0820/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 67%16/06Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%13/07Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%1/08Pos 16 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 16 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 12%20/08
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.5%Ahead 3/4
5
11
OR 80
33/1
My A'ali Baba silks

Mr E R Griffiths

2yo Gelding · 9-4

A'ali - Rohlindi (Red Ransom)

Alexandra McDonnell60%−7lbP D Evans80%
153059
3.0Class ↓3

Successful in strongly-run 6f event at Chepstow on debut but has found life tougher since, including behind a few of these in big-field nurseries at Glorious Goodwood and the York Ebor meeting.

Class Advantage

21/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a21/057/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par30/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par12/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par20/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength83%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%21/05Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 78%3/07Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 41%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 20%12/08Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 53%20/08
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +48.0%Ahead 4/4
11
9
OR 71
10/1
Isabella De Vega silks

Opulence Thoroughbreds & Fermoir Limit

2yo Filly · 8-9

Lope De Vega - Witches Brew (Duke Of Marmalade)

Ashley Lewis60%E Walker
33
6.0

Fair form when third in 7f novices at Thirsk and this venue (both good to firm) in recent months. Unexposed making a quick switch to handicaps but his mark demands improvement.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/0714/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength61%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 60%24/07Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 33%14/08
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -23.1%Ahead 1/2
13
10
OR 69
20/1
First Mate silks

G C Stevens & E Jones

2yo Gelding · 8-7

Naval Crown - My Favourite Thing (Oasis Dream)

Edward Greatrex60%Eve Johnson Houghton100%
774
4.0
1st Blinkers +3

Showed promise on 2 of his 3 qualifying runs and appeals as a potential improver in nurseries, particularly now stepping back up in trip. Has been gelded and also wears first-time blinkers.

Class Advantage

18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/074/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/0812/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a12/08projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength28%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 33%18/07Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%4/08Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 57%12/08
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.4%Ahead 1/3
8
13
OR 77
20/1
Theheatison silks

Felstead Partnership

2yo Colt · 9-1

Too Darn Hot - All Out (Acclamation)

Colin KeaneNick Scholfield
514325
6.0Class ↓3

Novice winner at Bath in July and has shown better form in defeat since, including second in a big-field nursery at the York Ebor meeting (7f, soft). Found a step up to listed company too much at Haydock last time but this is more realistic.

Class Advantage

14/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/061/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a20/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par8/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par20/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par5/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 60%14/06Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 40%20/07Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 94%20/08Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 0%5/09
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +32.4%Ahead 2/4
2
12
OR 85
16/1
Sonny Parvenue silks

Mr Daniel Kiely

2yo Colt · 9-9

Blackbeard - Punt Muragl (Olympic Glory)

P J Dobbs60%1/3R Hannon60%
184
5.0Class ↓3

Blackbeard colt who had a bit to spare at the line when justifying market support on his 6f Salisbury debut (good) in June but has posted 2 disappointing efforts over 7f since, latterly a remote fourth of 5 in nursery at Sandown (soft).

Class Advantage

14/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/0624/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/0729/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength66%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%14/06Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 22%24/07Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 25%29/08
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -29.2%Ahead 1/3