15:55 · Newton Abbot

Tony McCarthy Handicap Chase

2m 4f 216yGoing TBCClass 54YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 83
10/11
Mr Mcwhinny silks

Character Testing Syndicate

8yo Gelding · 11-7

Soldier Of Fortune - Kala Brandy (Kalanisi)

Jack Andrews60%2/4T Ellis60%
141411
9.0
Tongue strap

Has taken off for his new yard, recording a third win from his last 4 starts in 5-runner event at Sedgefield (19f, good) 4 days ago, cruising clear after taking over between the last 2. Carries a 7-lb penalty but still looking ahead of his mark, he's the one to beat.

Class Advantage

21/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below21/07 · mark par21/0713/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par19/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par7/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par14/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/09 · mark par14/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 33%21/07Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%18/07Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%7/09Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%14/09
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.1%Ahead 3/4
1
Value2
OR 97
7/1
The Gypsy Davey silks

Mr Billy Bates

8yo Gelding · 12-0

Sageburg - Rose N Alice (Anshan)

Adam Wedge60%2/10Mrs C Williams70%
4P4524
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓3
1st Cheekpieces +2

Stopped the slide off a plummeting mark when runner-up in a weak race over C&D back in July. Failed to back up that effort despite a 7 lb turnaround with the winner 6 days later and he cannot be relied upon nowadays. First-time cheekpieces replace a visor.

Class Advantage

8/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/10 · mark par8/1020/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/10 · mark par5/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/05 · mark par30/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/06 · mark par13/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/07 · mark par19/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par19/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 25%8/10Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 0%5/05Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%13/07Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 57%19/07
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength47%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -21.2%Ahead 1/4
2
5
OR 93
6/1
My Cullen silks

Up The Wall Racing

6yo Gelding · 11-10

Jet Away - Annalore (Milan)

Paddy Hanlon60%−5lbJ J Hanlon60%
052402
5.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Long-standing maiden who wasted no time getting back on track switched to British soil when 7 lengths second of 5 to Mr Mcwhinny over C&D (good) 11 days ago, racing freely at the head of affairs for much of the way. Meets that rival on 7 lb better terms here.

Class Advantage

26/05 · C10 · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par26/0517/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par24/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par14/08 · C9 · finish vs mark below14/08 · mark par31/08 · C9 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par7/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move3
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 36%26/05Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 92%24/07Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 12 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 12 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 21%31/08Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 75%7/09
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength97%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +24.5%Ahead 3/4
6
3
OR 81
8/1
McGregors Charge silks

Mr Roderick Chelton

8yo Gelding · 10-12

Recharge - Triggywinkle (Le Triton)

Ben Godfrey0/11P Gundry
P75424
5.0Class ↓2
Tongue strap

Perth scorer last summer (for Ella Pickard) who narrowly failed to repeat that feat having slipped to the same mark there (3m) last month, a tongue strap seemingly key to his revival. Below form over C&D 11 days ago though, a mixed round of jumping not helping. Best to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage

19/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par19/0922/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/07 · mark par19/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par15/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par7/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 83%19/09Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 33%3/07Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 83%15/08Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 25%7/09
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength10%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -29.9%Ahead 0/4
4
4
OR 86
11/2
Rule Me In silks

Sue Howell

7yo Gelding · 11-3

Mahler - Don't Rule Me Out (Vinnie Roe)

Jack Tudor60%1/7Christian Williams60%
354474
4.0Class ↓2
1st Cheekpieces +2

Fair hurdle winner but has yet to really threaten over the larger obstacles, once more not living up to market expectations when last seen at Southwell in May. Headgear goes on and interesting to see if he's supported again from a further reduced mark on his return.

Class Advantage

23/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/11 · mark par23/1114/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/01 · mark par18/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/02 · mark par15/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/03 · mark par31/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/03 · mark par11/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/05 · mark par11/05projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 67%23/11Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%18/02Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 25%31/03Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 25%11/05
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -46.6%Ahead 0/4
5
6
OR 82
12/1
Vengeance silks

Mr J F Panvert

8yo Gelding · 10-13

Schiaparelli - Titch Strider (Milan)

C O'Farrell60%0/3J D Frost
P45543
5.0
Tongue strap

Long-standing maiden who struggled from out of the weights on chase bow over C&D back in early-June. Able to race off his proper mark now at least but still looks up against it.

Class Advantage

24/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/03 · mark par24/034/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/12 · mark par23/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/03 · mark par7/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/04 · mark par17/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/04 · mark par3/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below3/06 · mark par3/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 58%24/03Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 64%23/03Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 57%17/04Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 0%3/06
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.3%Ahead 3/4