16:30 · Newton Abbot

Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Finale Handicap Hurdle

2m 167yGoing TBCClass 53YO plusTURFHandicap11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
10
4
OR 83
13/2
Warfleet silks

Mr J F Panvert

6yo Gelding · 10-6

Dartmouth - Titch Strider (Milan)

C O'Farrell60%1/3J D Frost
7P9631
7.0
Hood

Lightly-raced 6-y-o who confirmed his handicap debut promise when getting up late over 2¼m here in late-June (third and fifth winning subsequently). Still on a lowly mark, however, he's far from a bombproof conveyance (can jump sketchily and hasn't been the easiest train).

Class Advantage

7/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a7/075/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a4/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par23/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par23/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 88%7/07Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 9 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 20%4/04Pos 6 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 82%3/06Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%23/06
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +37.5%Ahead 4/4
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 105
7/2
Reteti silks

Tusk Racing

6yo Gelding · 12-0

Sixties Icon - Siri (Atlantic Sport)

M Goldstein60%1/12Miss S West
452321
8.0Going 8.0
Hood

Solid placed form prior to opening his account in a Stratford 0-100 last time, finishing 5½ lengths clear of a next-time-out winner. A 5-lb rise may just prevent a follow up in a slightly better race here.

Class Advantage

9/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/02 · mark par9/0223/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/02 · mark par17/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/05 · mark par26/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par29/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/06 · mark par20/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 50%9/02Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 83%17/05Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%29/06Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%20/08
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.4%Ahead 1/4
2
6
OR 102
13/2
Son Of Hypnos silks

Mr Ryan G Chapman

9yo Gelding · 11-11

Morpheus - Top Dollar (Elusive Quality)

Jack Stenhouse60%1/5−7lbR Chapman70%
P37741
6.0
Tongue strap1st Visor +2

Versatile performer in Ireland. Decisively capitalised on falling mark to open his account for current yard here (2¼m) last time, not for catching under another attacking ride. Runner-up a winner subsequently, and he's still potentially well treated on the best of his Irish form.

Class Advantage

20/10 · C6 · finish vs mark below20/10 · mark par20/107/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/04 · mark par23/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/04 · mark par11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/06 · mark par19/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%20/10Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 25%23/04Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 7 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 57%19/07Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 100%22/08
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +35.4%Ahead 3/4
3
Value2
OR 102
15/2
God Of Fire silks

Ben Hughes

6yo Gelding · 11-11

Muhaarar - Loreto (Holy Roman Emperor)

Jonjo O'Neill Jr.60%1/3J & A O'Neill60%
24142
7.0Going 8.0

Useful performer on the Flat. Remained in top form since making the most of a good opportunity here (2¼m) on comeback. Clear of the rest when 1½-length second to one that ran up to its best at Fontwell last time. Makes appeal for yard operating at 35% strike rate so far in September.

Class Advantage

14/12 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/12 · mark par14/126/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par15/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/08 · mark par28/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move1
Strength74%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%14/12Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 73%22/04Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%15/08Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 88%28/08
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.1%Ahead 3/4
6
3
OR 85
11/2
Ocean Heights silks

Mr D Pipe

9yo Gelding · 11-1

Dubawi - Ethereal Sky (Invincible Spirit)

Rian Corcoran60%0/3−5lbD Pipe60%
633271
7.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Some creditable efforts in defeat earlier this season. Bounced back to open his hurdling account in decisive fashion here (2¾m) 11 days ago, when plainly suited by the emphasis on speed up in trip. May prove vulnerable back down in distance under a 7-lb penalty, in what looks a better race.

Class Advantage

10/02 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/02 · mark par10/0227/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par16/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/06 · mark par24/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par23/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par7/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 70%10/02Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 33%16/06Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 50%23/08Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%7/09
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength71%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.1%Ahead 3/4
9
10
OR 80
13/2
Farhh Echo silks

Mrs G Morgan

5yo Gelding · 10-10

Farhh - Dulcet (Halling)

Beau Morgan60%0/3−5lbD J Jeffreys70%
P880P1
5.0
Cheek pieces1st Tongue Strap +2

Best efforts to date both at Worcester, formerly chasing home a couple of next-time out winners in 2m maiden last summer. Back to form with a bang when capitalising on a much-reduced mark in 2½m handicap there 8 days ago. Will take all the beating under a 7-lb penalty if in the same form.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/0722/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/10 · mark par11/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/03 · mark par28/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/03 · mark par19/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength3%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 73%24/07Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 31%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 13%11/03Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 17%19/04Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%10/09
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +20.9%Ahead 3/4
4
5
OR 99
12/1
Begin The Luck silks

Miss Daisy Hitchins

10yo Gelding · 11-8

Le Fou - Bobsyourdad (Bob's Return)

Robbie David60%4/21−5lbDaisy Hitchins60%
515123
7.0Going 8.0

Won 3 small-field chases last season. Off since finding less than looked likely in a similar event at Plumpton in late-May. Back over hurdles for first time in 18 months and has at least gone well of a similar break previously.

Class Advantage

14/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/02 · mark par14/026/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/03 · mark par4/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/04 · mark par19/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/04 · mark par6/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/05 · mark par26/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par26/05projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 33%14/02Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 20%4/04Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 86%6/05Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 33%26/05
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength17%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.3%Ahead 2/4
5
11
OR 98
12/1
Clear Sky silks

The Hill's And Way's

4yo Filly · 11-5

Jack Hobbs - Nova De Teillee (Poliglote)

Lorcan Williams0/4J Scott
9454
4.0

Lightly-raced 4-y-o. Didn't look short of speed when 7 lengths fourth of 9 in Exeter juvenile run at a stop-start gallop in March, making more impact than previous 2 hurdle starts. Yard's first jumps runner since late-May and needs more again to defy her opening mark.

Class Advantage

30/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a30/1014/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/019/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/0322/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/03projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength48%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 33%30/10Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 57%14/01Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 43%9/03Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 63%22/03
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +47.6%Ahead 4/4
8
7
OR 90
33/1
Enziya silks

Pickard Racing Club

4yo Gelding · 10-11

Night Of Thunder - Eshtiya (Dark Angel)

Paul O'Brien60%0/2K Pickard60%
57F8
4.0Going 8.0Class ↓4
1st Tongue Strap +2

Went the right way on the Flat in Ireland (winner up to 1¾m). Highly tried/no impact in juvenile hurdles last season. Opening mark potentially lenient on his Flat form, though does have an 8-month absence to overcome.

Class Advantage

31/07 · C7 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/0716/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par28/08 · C7 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par31/10 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/12 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/01projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength78%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 65%31/07Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%28/08Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 43%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 14%5/12Pos 8 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 22%17/01
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength22%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +24.4%Ahead 4/4
11
9
OR 80
10/1
Saucats silks

Bellies Syndicate

5yo Gelding · 10-3

Nirvana Du Berlais - Taneshka (Astarabad)

Callum Pritchard60%1/4J Tickle60%
512373
6.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Course regular who has backed up his breakthrough success here (off 1 lb higher) with a handful of creditable placed efforts. Wasted no time in getting back to form when 4 lengths third of 9 at Stratford (2m) latest, enhancing a fair record under this jockey.

Class Advantage

23/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par23/063/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par13/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par19/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/07 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 56%23/06Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 91%13/07Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 71%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 33%22/08Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 75%5/09
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.2%Ahead 2/4
7
8
OR 89
14/1
Raffles Nobu silks

Mr Michael Ogburn

6yo Gelding · 10-12

Authorized - Utopie Des Bordes (Antarctique)

J M Quinlan60%1/7Nick Scholfield80%
213535
5.0Class ↓4
1st Blinkers +3Tongue strap

Strong traveller who capitalised on a much-reduced mark/snapped a long losing run at this track (2¾m) in July. Has often flattered to deceive since, for all he wasn't disgraced in the face of a troubled passage when beaten 10 lengths in Stratford selling handicap latest.

Class Advantage

16/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/06 · mark par16/0613/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par23/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/08 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 167y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 67%16/06Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 71%20/07Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%28/08Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 33%5/09
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength9%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -21.0%Ahead 0/4