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14:12 · Newton Abbot

Devondale Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m 4f 216yGoing TBCClass 34YO plusTURFHandicap3 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 117
6/4
Thickthorn Tom silks

Kate Fisher & Sally Hall

Thickthorn Tom

6yo Gelding · 10-8

Ocovango - Blume (Flemensfirth)

Harry Skelton80%4/9D Skelton100%
121112
9.0
1st Blinkers +31st Tongue Strap +2

A 4-time winner this summer who's also won twice over C&D. 85/40, good second of 5 in handicap at Bangor (3m, good) 2 weeks ago. Did nothing wrong in defeat last time, but always a chance finishing effort could get tested if this becomes tactical.

Class Advantage

27/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par27/0519/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par12/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/07 · mark par16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par27/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par4/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%27/05Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%12/07Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%27/08Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 75%4/09
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.7%Ahead 3/4
1
Market Fav2
OR 133
5/4
Intosomethinggood silks

Mr M Stavrou

Intosomethinggood

5yo Gelding · 11-10

Dragon Dancer - Hazy Manor (Tagula)

Sam Twiston-Davies70%2/9N & W Twiston-Davies
5284P1
6.0Going 10.0Class ↓2

Useful hurdler who won 4 times last season, including when last seen in March at Kempton (21f) by ¾-length from Turndlightsdownlow, finding plenty to lead final 50 yds in steadily-run race. Has absence to overcome though interesting now sent chasing.

Class Advantage

5/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/0911/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/10 · mark par2/11 · C3 · finish vs mark below2/11 · mark par14/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/11 · mark par13/12 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/12 · mark par14/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above14/03 · mark par14/03projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%5/09Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 67%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 91%2/11Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%13/12Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%14/03
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +34.4%Ahead 3/4
3
3
OR 106
10/3
It's A Breeze silks

Mrs Helen Moger

It's A Breeze

7yo Gelding · 10-5

Walk In The Park - Blodge (Kalanisi)

Paddy Hanlon60%1/3−5lbP F Nicholls80%
FP4112
8.0
Tongue strap

Maiden hurdler who has taken time to find his feet over fences before winning twice over C&D in July. Ran well but was no match for Thickthorn Tom when second in C&D handicap 22 days ago. 8 lb out of the weights here and work required to reverse form with that rival with headgear discarded.

Class Advantage

5/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/03 · mark par5/031/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below1/04 · mark par3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/06 · mark par13/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par19/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/07 · mark par27/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/08 · mark par27/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 216y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 88%5/03Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 57%3/06Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%19/07Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 67%27/08
Projected finish3rd of 30% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.4%Ahead 2/4