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7

Global Success

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 66

Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Fillies' Nursery · 7f 50y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looks exposed as a fair maiden at best. Seemed unsuited by testing conditions at Goodwood latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 5f10y Gd 12817/0444 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 1284 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 12523/0644 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 67 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 67 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 67 par31/072OR 675 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 66 · 6f16y GF 128 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 67 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 67 par26/085OR 672 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 66 · 7f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 66 par8/092OR 66projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Goodwood23rd1st+2
2026-08-26Newbury55th6th−1
2026-08-09Chepstow52nd3rd−1
2026-07-31Goodwood25th3rd+2
2026-07-09Newbury42nd2nd0
2026-06-23Newbury43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/049/0726/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength46%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20265th50/10%67%+0.67
27/04/20266th4/179%17%-0.62
23/06/20263rd28/10%78%+0.78
09/07/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
31/07/20265th50/10%76%+0.76
09/08/20262nd5/493%88%-0.06
26/08/20265th25/10%69%+0.69
08/09/20263rd20/10%33%+0.33