1
Missouri Waltz
2yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 82
Ayr · Ladbrokes 'Bet 5 Get 30 New Customer Offer' Fillies' Nursery · 7f 50y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -41.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |