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5

Baddaddan

2yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 83

Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed the promise of his Newbury debut (fourth behind a useful pair) when landing 3-runner novice at Nottingham (6f). Struggled faced with a very different test in big-field Newmarket sales race but didn't do a lot better on nursery debut at Doncaster last week. Blinkers reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f GF 12818/0744 @ Nottingham 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 13011/0842 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 83 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 83 par22/082OR 834 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 83 · 6f2y Goo 133 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 83 par11/094OR 83projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster413th15th−2
2026-08-22Newmarket214th14th0
2026-08-11Nottingham41st3rd−2
2026-07-18Newbury44th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0711/0822/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -31.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
11/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
22/08/202614th17/255%24%-0.32
11/09/202613th11/142%14%-0.28