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3

Crystal Queen

2yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 88

Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed her debut promise when winning the 8-runner Hilary Needler at Beverley (5f, good to firm) in May. No impact in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and also set another stiff task on first crack at 6f in the Lowther. Nurseries more suitable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR - · 5f GF 12820/0542 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 12830/0521 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 27 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0611 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 89 · 6f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 89 par20/081OR 89projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20York113th11th+2
2026-06-17Royal Ascot113th11th+2
2026-05-30Beverley21st1st0
2026-05-20Ayr42nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0530/0517/0620/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20262nd11/142%50%+0.08
30/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/06/202613th50/10%54%+0.54
20/08/202613th80/10%25%+0.25