11
Deputy Vice
2yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 74
Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 16/5 | 83% | 0% | -0.83 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |