10
Furturra
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 76
Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.40 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 20/08/2026 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 37% | +0.37 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |