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9

Gladys Pugh

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 78

Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mehmas filly who was much improved from debut when second of 6 in novice at York (6f, good to firm) in July. Unable to repeat that form at Chester and mark looks stiff on balance on first 3 runs.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 12810/0723 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f Goo 12825/0732 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f17y Goo 12822/082projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Chester26th6th0
2026-07-25York32nd3rd−1
2026-07-10York25th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0725/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

Delivery trend +13.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
25/07/20262nd16/116%80%+0.64
22/08/20266th16/116%17%+0.01