8
Mind Those Steps
2yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 79
Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 20/08/2026 | 20th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |