4
Tropical Crown
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 84
Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Beverley | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -44.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |