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7

Trumpety Trump

2yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 80

Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed more than most of stable's 2-y-o debutants when close third of 4 in a muddling race at Ayr in July. Couple of lesser efforts followed but much improved ridden more positively when making a winning nursery debut at Hamilton. 5 lb rise looks very fair.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 6f Gd 1335/0744 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 12817/0743 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 75 · 1m68y GS 133 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 75 par21/083OR 752 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 6f6y Sft 122 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 75 par2/092OR 75projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton21st1st0
2026-08-21Hamilton32nd3rd−1
2026-07-17Hamilton44th6th−2
2026-07-05Ayr43rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0717/0721/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +25.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20263rd33/10%33%+0.33
17/07/20264th13/266%25%-0.41
21/08/20262nd12/137%50%+0.13
02/09/20261st22/10%100%+1.00