12
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2yo Gelding · 8-2 · OR 68
Ayr · Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/5 | 98% | 60% | -0.38 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |