IvyArcIvyArc
1

Caturra Lights

2yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 78

Ayr · British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed promise when placed in maidens at Musselburgh and Chester on his first 2 starts. Had the worst of the draw when ninth back at Chester and gelded after, he showed improved form when making a successful nursery debut at Carlisle last week. Blinkers on and this a different examination.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f1y Goo 13326/0432 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Gd 1337/0522 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 13330/0525 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 74 · 5f182y Goo 135 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 74 par9/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle51st6th−4
2026-05-30Chester29th10th−1
2026-05-07Chester23rd4th−1
2026-04-26Musselburgh33rd6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/047/0530/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength24%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20263rd66/10%71%+0.71
07/05/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
30/05/20269th16/116%20%+0.04
09/09/20261st11/142%100%+0.58