2
Dance A Jig
2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 96
Ayr · British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed) · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Haydock | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 23th | 23th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ascot | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 17/06/2026 | 23rd | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |