3
Dubai Champion
2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 87
Ayr · British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed) · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -23.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 94% | +0.15 |
| 22/08/2026 | 11th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |