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Hickory Lad

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 99

Ayr · British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well suited by the step up to 6f when doubling his career tally with a decisive success in the Woodcote at Epsom in June. Shaped as though still in form since in better company, keeping on very well to finish third in listed company at York 4 weeks ago. That just about sets the standard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f Gd 13310/0444 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 13329/0442 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f15y Gd 1306/0522 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 6f3y Goo 1335/0621 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 95 par9/071OR 951 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 100 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 100 par30/071OR 1001 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 99 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 99 par22/081OR 99projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York13rd3rd0
2026-07-30Goodwood18th8th+0
2026-07-09Newmarket13rd3rd+0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs21st2nd−1
2026-05-06Chester22nd3rd−1
2026-04-29Musselburgh41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/045/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -7.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20262nd18/15%86%+0.80
29/04/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
06/05/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
05/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
09/07/20263rd9/276%0%-0.76
30/07/20268th50/10%22%+0.22
22/08/20263rd15/261%80%+0.19